Numbers don’t lie. That’s the problem.

In the 1930s, France had many far-sighted politicians. They knew that Nazi Germany was a danger and foresaw an invasion.

The French minister of war, André Maginot, didn’t sit idly by.

He built the Maginot Line, a network of mighty fortifications along the border.

Thorough mathematical calculations shaped the construction. Maginot considered troop speed, road capacity, and more.

But Germans didn’t test the line for its strength.

They simply bypassed it from the north and attacked France through Belgium. They occupied a significant part of the country within weeks.

The meticulous calculations turned out to be useless.

Scenario planning is a useful exercise. It teaches executives to think bigger and bolder.

But the more calculations we make, the deeper our illusion of knowledge becomes. If we have so many numbers, how can we be wrong?

Trying to predict the market’s future is a dangerous game. It’s like choosing a partner based on a questionnaire.

We need to:

[1] Create new markets

[2] Stay flexible and nimble.

The more calculations we make, the further from reality the numbers become, but the stronger our confidence in our infallibility grows.

How many calculations do you make when you craft your strategy?

How do you make your strategy future-proof?

Svyatoslav Biryulin

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