1. Strategy and Value Exchange: The illusion of innovation – and how to avoid it
If you start with hypotheses, you’ve already lost
Hypotheses bias our thinking. That’s why 80% of startups fail.
Every startup founder knows this magic playbook:
– Build hypotheses
– Test hypotheses
– Prototype
– Test and refine
– Create the product
– Sell
– Scale up
But if we begin with hypotheses, we fall into the psychological trap called ‘projection.’
Here’s the definition:
“Projection is the tendency to attribute one’s own thoughts, feelings, or perceptions to others.”
When we hypothesize, we see the world through our own lens.
When we test the hypotheses, we subconsciously look for the confirmation of our own projections.
Don’t start with hypothesizing. Start with observation.
Observe how your future customers live, work, or solve specific problems.
Clear your mind. Don’t go thinking that you have a solution.
Just observe.
And only then build your hypotheses on what you’ve seen.
2. Strategy-related terms: The illusion of control, AI, and humanoid robots:
How our fears drive innovation
When we fear something, we either run away from it or try to get as close to it as possible.
The latter reflects the so-called ‘illusion of control.’
Teens fear death, so they listen to the goth rock or darkwave. They hope it will help them control the death.
Adults are afraid that AI will steal their jobs, so they create AI that can do it, or humanoid robots.
When I ask business leaders why they are so eager to replace their workers with machines or algorithms, they say: “Humans make mistakes, but machines don’t.”
That’s ridiculous.
So, they want to replace imperfect humans with perfect robots, the ones who are better.
But wouldn’t it be better to make robots different, not better?
We don’t need ‘better humans,’ we need ‘different humans.’
Wouldn’t it be better to create AI that can do what humans can never do?
For example, could we create a machine that grows new human organs to replace damaged ones?
Or mechanisms made from a single piece and therefore unbreakable?
Or food products that can be grown right at home instead of being transported halfway across the planet, driving up costs and polluting the earth?
3. The trend of the week: The tragedy of empty shelves
Try to please everyone—those who want it round, hot, or red—and you’ll end up offering something bland to all.
The Wall Street Journal reports:
“The consulting firm AlixPartners studied 30 retailers and found that on average only 9% of their online women’s clothing assortment was available in physical stores. For department stores, the percentage was 7%, and at mass merchants it was 2%. Specialty retailers fared better, with a third of their online goods available in stores.”
So, if you see an item on a retailer’s website and come to the store to try it, chances are you won’t find it.
When e-commerce boomed, brick-and-mortar retailers tried to adapt. They expanded the product range on their website while reducing it in physical stores, simultaneously decreasing the stores’ size.
As a result, “nearly three-quarters of consumers prefer shopping in physical stores, but only 9% are satisfied with the store experience.”
“We thought, ‘We can do more with a lot less,’ and that didn’t work out for us,” said Tom Kingsbury, Kohl’s former chief executive.
We should firmly remember this lesson: when a competitor tries to steal your customers, don’t copy their moves—find a new uniqueness.
What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Download my new mini-book The Plague of Strategic Goals for free here—a gift for my subscribers! Oh, and by the way, the same link also has free checklists (in case you haven’t grabbed them yet)!
Svyatoslav Biryulin
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I help businesses scale fast by creating new markets. Planning a strategic retreat? Need a facilitator who gets results? DM me.
Read also: The Business Paradox: the More You Think of Profit, the Less You Make
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