1. Strategy and Value Exchange: Why most AI startups will fail
When half-baked tech meets not-so-obvious needs, it is unlikely to succeed.
Ages ago, an unknown inventor came up with the idea of fitting a spear with a bone tip.
The invention was successful because:
[1] The inventor was a hunter himself. [2] He knew his clients’ needs very well because he lived among them.Drew Houston, the founder of Dropbox, came up with the idea when he forgot his flash drive at home.
Steve Jobs had used MP3 players and smartphones before Apple launched the iPod and iPhone.
There are no rules when it comes to invention, but some factors help an invention succeed:
[1] The inventor is also a user. They know the problem firsthand and understand future users’ needs. [2] The need is obvious and widespread. [3] It won’t take users long to learn the new tool and adjust their routines.Many tech inventions fail because they are built by engineers for ordinary people. Often, tech geeks create tools to solve their own problems, but users just don’t have those problems.
It will happen this year with “AI agents.” Most of them won’t find their loyal users.
Most are just attempts to bolt half-baked tech onto problems users didn’t even know they had.
However, a few will pave the way for the future of the technology.
2. Strategy-related terms: Why rewarding impact over busyness isn’t such a good idea
The impact you get might not be the one you expected.
Many companies claim to reward impact over busyness. Usually, they do it through KPIs.
But they forget about some critical aspects:
[1] Human brain capacity is limited.Scientists have shown that individuals with multiple goals tend to focus on only one goal. When people face both quantity and quality goals, they often prioritize quantity—especially when the goals are challenging.
If an employee is given a KPI, they might focus on it too much and even become a ‘KPI warrior.’
[2] What does ‘impact’ mean?How can we measure the impact of a good team leader who motivates their team and helps them develop?
What is the impact of a sales rep? Sales? Wrong.
A sales rep’s job isn’t to ‘sell’ – it’s to build and maintain customer relationships where sales become a natural outcome.
Sure, some companies invent weird leadership metrics. Me? I stay skeptical.
[3] Who’s doing the thinking if everyone’s chasing KPIs?For some employees – and all executives – thinking is the job.
We need them to create new ideas, new products, and strategies.
Sometimes, new ideas take months of thinking. But the work goes unnoticed since there’s no clear ‘impact’.
If no one finds any joy in the work itself and everyone’s just chasing rewards, the organization is doomed.
3. Thursday musings: Don’t be too quick to call it a success
One-time success is a lottery win. Five good years — a strong sign you’re on the right track. Fifty years in the game — that’s the real success.
They say we live in an era of rapid change. But I believe we live in an age of snap judgments.
We declare businesses, technologies, and business models ‘successful’ when they are still in their infancy.
Uber was hailed as a success a decade ago, but it has accumulated billions in losses and still struggles to turn a profit. Is that success?
Amazon is the biggest online retailer in the US, but it’s still looking for the ‘fourth pillar’ for its business. Is it a success?
Tesla used to be a stock market rock star, but its future after 2028 is uncertain. Is that success?
Meanwhile, it takes some ideas years to make it to the market:
– Air conditioning – almost 40 years
– Tea bags – 15 years
– Levi’s jeans – more than 60 years
– Kellogg’s cereal – 25 years
Procter & Gamble was founded in 1837, so it’s 188 years old. To me, that’s a success.
Business is an infinite game.
What do you think? Share your opinions in the comments.
Download my new mini-book The Plague of Strategic Goals for free here—a gift for my subscribers! Oh, and by the way, the same link also has free checklists (in case you haven’t grabbed them yet)!
Svyatoslav Biryulin
––
I help businesses scale fast by creating new markets. Planning a strategic retreat? Need a facilitator who gets results? DM me.
Read also: An Ideal Spherical Cow: Why Strategy Fails Outside the Vacuum
Buy my book, Red and Yellow Strategies: Flip Your Strategic Thinking and Overcome Short-termism.
