Here is a newsletter where I write about cognitive biases in business strategy, mental models for strategic decision making, and thinking beyond KPIs
The Deceptive Trap of Experience
Experience makes us wiser. But it can also make us stiffer and dumber.
CXO Advisory Group analyzed 6,584 forecasts from 68 experts on the US stock market between 2005 and 2012.
The average accuracy of these experts’ predictions was below 47%, which is worse than simply flipping a coin.
The more we know, the greater our self-confidence.
The greater our self-confidence, the less we’re willing to challenge our knowledge and learn new things.
That’s why it wasn’t insiders who disrupted the cab, smartphone, or photo film markets — it was outsiders.
They saw these markets differently from incumbents.
You can learn to do that, too.
I’ve conducted hundreds of strategy retreats.
I’ve noticed that when I ask a team, “How can you do this differently from your competitors?” it sparks more ideas than asking, “How can you do this better?”
The question about being “better” locks us into our past experiences.
The question about doing things differently opens up our creativity.
Found a good solution? Don’t stop there — explore a few different ones. One of them might be far better.
Want to explore new products and entire markets together? Take a look here.
The helicopter view is overrated.
We miss far more than we gain from it.
It might help a general before a battle — but for a business leader, it’s more of a distraction.
From up high, the market looks like a battlefield of competing forces.
But business isn’t about fighting competitors — it’s about fighting for the customer.
Winners aren’t those who outplay the competition.
They’re the ones who give customers precisely what they need.
A CEO will learn more by stepping out of the office and talking to real customers than from any market report or financial dashboard.
Because it’s customers — not charts — who pay the bills.
From a helicopter view, those customers and their needs tend to blur into the landscape.
I help CEOs focus on what their customers really want — without getting bogged down in detail.
If that sounds like something you need, just drop me a line.
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A present for you
A year ago, I published my book Red and Yellow Strategies: Flip Your Strategic Thinking and Overcome Short-termism. To celebrate the anniversary, I’m offering a special price — all through June.
🎧 Get the audiobook at a special price here.
📘 Get the ebook at a special price here.
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