The Illusions of rigid planning in an unstable world
In his book How Big Things Get Done, Bent Flyvbjerg shares some shocking numbers.
His research team has built a database of more than 16.000 projects from many countries.
The database includes both megaprojects, like building skyscrapers or digitizing government institutions, and smaller projects. The projects come from various domains – from the aerospace industry to home renovation.
And Flyvbjerg’s statistic is thought-provoking – at the very least.
- Only 47,9% of projects hit the mark on cost
- Only 8.5 percent of projects hit the mark on both cost and time
- And just 0.5% nail cost, time, and benefits
Basically, it means that only one out of 200 projects goes as planned.
Bent Flyvbjerg doesn’t share specific stats on life strategies or business strategies. But any strategy is a project.
And it’s safe to assume that 199 out of 200 of strategies fail.
If you came to a dealership to buy a car, and a salesperson told you it would start only once out of 200 tries, would you buy it?
We need to embrace the fact that long-term planning in such an ever-changing, fluid world is impossible.
Adaptivity is more important than the ability to plan.
Svyatoslav Biryulin
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